How likely is any network going to provide the expected function output?
This surface is defined by our choice in distance measure which is called the cost or loss function

$$\boldsymbol{\omega}^\textrm{MLE}=\underset{\boldsymbol{\omega}}{\textrm{argmax}}\left[\mathcal{L}(\boldsymbol{\{}\boldsymbol{\theta}\boldsymbol{\}}^\textrm{train}|\boldsymbol{\{}{\bf d}\boldsymbol{\}}^\textrm{train}, \boldsymbol{\omega}, \boldsymbol{\alpha}^*)\right]$$



Different results are obtained with each network, none with a sense of trust

Classical network : $\tiny \mathcal{P}(\boldsymbol{\omega},\boldsymbol{\alpha}|\boldsymbol{\{}{\bf d},\boldsymbol{\theta}\boldsymbol{\}}^\textrm{train}) \to \delta(\boldsymbol{\omega}-\boldsymbol{\omega}^\textrm{MLE},\boldsymbol{\alpha}-\boldsymbol{\alpha}^*)$
Variational inference : $\tiny \mathcal{P}(\boldsymbol{\omega},\boldsymbol{\alpha}|\boldsymbol{\{}{\bf d},\boldsymbol{\theta}\boldsymbol{\}}^\textrm{train}) = \mathcal{Q}(\boldsymbol{\omega}|\boldsymbol{\nu}^\textrm{MLE}, \boldsymbol{\alpha}^*, \boldsymbol{\{}{\bf d},\boldsymbol{\theta}\boldsymbol{\}}^\textrm{train})$
Bayesian networks : $\tiny \mathcal{P}(\boldsymbol{\omega},\boldsymbol{\alpha}|\boldsymbol{\{}{\bf d},\boldsymbol{\theta}\boldsymbol{\}}^\textrm{train}) =\prod_i^{n_\textrm{train}}\mathcal{L}(\boldsymbol{\theta}^\textrm{train}_i|{\bf d}^\textrm{train}_i,\boldsymbol{\omega},\boldsymbol{\alpha})p(\boldsymbol{\omega},\boldsymbol{\alpha})$
A slice through at the summarised observation is the approximate posterior
Posterior distribution of galaxy counts and fluxes in fields

Although each one would take a whole seminar to describe in detail...
Maybe next time 😉